Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has gained on Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the high-stakes race for Texas governor
Miami, Florida – In the high-stakes contest for governor of Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has increased his lead against Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke and currently has a 9-point cushion, up from a 7-point cushion one month ago.
Abbott has a lead over O’Rourke of 47% to 38%, according to the results of a new poll conducted by The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler.
The survey was carried out between September 6 and September 13 and included responses from 1,268 registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Two political scientists came to the same conclusion: Abbott’s recent flood of television advertisements, which went unanswered for several weeks, and voters’ slight shift to the right on issues relating to abortion, the border, and crime may have helped the two-term incumbent build on a lead of 46%-39% in August.
According to poll director Mark Owens, who also teaches political science at UT-Tyler, “a definite change in the election is that the Abbott campaign started advertising and they went negative while they were the only campaign on the air.” “Registered voters who indicate they saw the advertising supported Gov. Abbott 23% more often than those who did not see the advertisements.”
Abbott’s “strong and even expanding lead” is a natural result of “the incumbency advantage,” according to Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor at the University of Houston. This refers to Abbott’s advantage in terms of money, broadcasting airtime, and brand recognition.
After a spring and summer in which the overturning of Roe vs. Wade by the United States Supreme Court and the mass shooting at a Uvalde elementary school boosted O’Rourke’s campaign, the traditional heating up of campaigns after Labor Day has brought Abbott to more friendly terrain on matters of most concern to voters, said Rottinghaus. This comes after a spring and summer in which the overturning of Roe vs. Wade by the United States Supreme Court and the mass shooting at a
