Harvard professor says odds of a recession in next year-and-a-half are between two-thirds, three-quarters

Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard University and the Harvard Kennedy School Jason Furman, who served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama and on the Council of Economic Advisers and the National Economic Council under President Bill Clinton, stated on Thursday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that “we must not add to the debt any further than we already have.” And added that the probability of a recession during the next year and a half is between two-thirds and three-quarters.

Furman stated, “I would say there is a two-thirds to three-quarters risk of a recession in the next year and a half. I’ve been less concerned over the year about an impending recession. I never imagined the odds would be so favorable for this year. Nevertheless, all of these interest rate rises will accumulate. They will produce a delayed effect. I believe the Fed is doing the right thing, but I am concerned about where we will be in a year or a year and a half.”

In addition, he remarked, “I think there have been some positive developments, such as the Inflation Reduction Act. This will reduce the deficit. Then, however, all of this deficit reduction was undone by the student loan package… President Biden is doing the exact correct thing by supporting the Fed’s independence… I believe President Biden should maintain this stance, and we should not add to the debt any further than we currently have.”

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